The contribution rate of the hottest investment wi

2022-07-29
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The investment contribution rate will be further enhanced to support the economy in the "eight guarantees"

the investment contribution rate will be further enhanced to support the economy in the "eight guarantees"

China Construction Machinery Information Guide: an official of the Ministry of Finance disclosed at a press conference held by the state information office on May 27 that as of April 30, 392.4 billion yuan of new central investment had been allocated, and more than one third of the 1.18 trillion yuan of central investment had been allocated in this round. In the first four months, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment rose to 30.5%, and the growth of investment was

an official of the Ministry of Finance disclosed at a press conference held by the state information office on May 27 that as of April 30, 392.4 billion yuan of new central investment had been allocated, and more than one third of the 1.18 trillion yuan of central investment had been allocated in this round. In the first April, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment rose to 30.5% in the past, and composite materials were mainly used in the aerospace field. The pulling effect of investment on "maintaining growth" was gradually reflected

experts pointed out that due to inventory reduction and other factors, the contribution rate of China's fixed asset investment to GDP will further increase in the second half of the year. This year, the investment pull rate is expected to reach 4.6 to 4.7 percentage points. The strong growth of investment has greatly increased the hope that China's GDP will be "guaranteed to be eight". At the same time, attention should be paid to the positive role of this round of investment in "adjusting structure" and digesting overcapacity

the high growth rate of investment is expected to continue

although the haze of the international financial crisis has not yet cleared up, China is showing strong investment demand. In June, urban fixed asset investment increased by 30.5% year-on-year, which has been at a high level since the reform and opening up. "After deducting the price factor, the actual growth rate of investment in April has exceeded 35%. Although the growth rate of investment in individual months in 1993 exceeded 60%, the actual growth rate at that time was below 30%." Chendongqi, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said

in the first April, the planned total investment of new projects in China increased by 90.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to increase compared with the first quarter. The growth rate of local investment has gradually surpassed that of central investment, which indicates that the rapid growth of fixed asset investment is expected to continue in the short term, and the driving effect of central investment is gradually reflected. Some securities companies believe that the nominal growth rate of investment is expected to remain above 30% from the second to third quarters of this year

the investment growth rate is gradually rising, and the pulling effect of 4trillion investment is undoubtedly the first to bear the brunt. Mu Hong, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said at the inspection Conference on the implementation of expanding domestic demand and maintaining growth held by the state information office on May 27 that the growth rate of investment in agriculture, water conservancy, transportation, education, health and environmental protection was between 35% and 85%, and the production situation in the fields of investment products such as construction machinery, building materials and electromechanical equipment improved

Vice Minister of finance zhangshaochun said that as of April 30, a total of 392.4 billion yuan of new central investment had been budgeted, accounting for 33.3% of the 1.18 trillion yuan of new central investment in the 4trillion yuan of investment

in addition, China has introduced many policies and measures to expand domestic demand and maintain growth this year. For example, the allocation of 20billion yuan of funds for technological transformation of enterprises is expected to stimulate 460billion yuan of direct social investment. Measures such as adjusting the capital ratio of investment projects and the project of energy-saving products benefiting the people will also help drive the growth of investment and domestic demand

the investment growth rate of more than 30% is faster than that of the previous two years when China was in a relatively fast economic cycle, and higher than the central government's expectation that the investment in fixed assets will increase by more than 20% this year. Liuyansong, Economic Research Institute of Shaanxi development and Reform Commission, believes that investment and construction projects under high growth rate, on the one hand, come from projects that have been temporarily overstocked and shelved to prevent economic overheating in previous years, on the other hand, we should be vigilant about whether there are projects that fail to meet the approval standards to "make up the numbers"

the level of investment is expected to increase

China's GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter of this year, of which investment, consumption and net export respectively drove economic growth by 2.0, 4.3 and -0.2 percentage points. According to the expenditure method, since the digestion of inventory investment in the first quarter is gradually coming to an end, the investment demand calculated by gross capital formation will further increase after the second quarter

Fanjianping, chief economist of the national information center and director of the economic forecast department, believes that the investment pull rate in the second quarter will increase by 1.5 to 2 percentage points month on month, that is, it will drive GDP growth by 3.5 to 4 percentage points

from the perspective of the whole year, hajiming, chief economist of CICC, believes that the investment scale of the first three batches of central governments reached 300billion yuan, plus the previous reduction of the capital ratio of some projects. Based on this calculation, the new investment scale led by the government may have exceeded 1trillion yuan since the fourth quarter of last year. If the growth of consumer demand can be stabilized at about 4 percentage points, the investment pull this year is expected to reach 4.6 to 4.7 percentage points. In this way, even if there is a negative growth in external demand, the annual GDP is still expected to reach about 7.8%

some experts pointed out that at the end of last year, when the central government set the "eight guarantee" target, most of the industry estimated that China's net export could maintain a positive growth of 5% or 10% this year. Against the background of the rapid decline of foreign trade this year, the strong growth of investment undoubtedly greatly increases the hope that China's economic growth will "maintain 8"

however, the performance of this round of investment in promoting economic restructuring remains to be seen. From a positive perspective, while China's fixed asset investment maintained a high growth rate in the first quarter, it showed a good momentum, such as the primary and tertiary industries were faster than the secondary industry, the investment in the central and western regions was faster than that in the East, and the growth rate of non-state-owned investment was accelerated

on the other hand, in recent years, China's consumption contribution rate has gradually declined, economic growth is too dependent on investment and export, and economic peaks and valleys are particularly affected by fixed asset investment. Although government investment is the most direct and effective means to maintain growth, it is also likely to aggravate the risk of economic structure imbalance in the short term. The quality of economic growth driven by investment has yet to be tested in time

beware of investment "hidden worries"

some insiders pointed out that the "hidden worries" behind the high growth of fixed asset investment also lie in whether it will aggravate the pressure of relative excess capacity and whether the quality of economic growth brought about by the rapid rebound in investment can be guaranteed

in this regard, Niu Li, director of the macroeconomic division of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, believes that the new investment areas determine whether the overcapacity will be exacerbated. If the new investment is mainly invested in infrastructure, livelihood projects and other debt areas, it will not increase the pressure of overcapacity, but will consume the already excess industrial capacity such as steel and cement. However, if we invest in areas that already have a large amount of surplus, it may lead to low-level redundant construction. Private investment may invest less in relatively surplus Industries for the sake of profitability on a global scale. However, government investment, especially the investment impulse of local governments, may exacerbate overcapacity

Liu Yansong believes that at present, we should be alert not only to excessive investment flowing to industries with excess capacity due to insufficient internal and external demand, but also to industries such as "two highs and one capital" which should be strictly restricted even though the demand is strong. However, the industrial investment should be divided into different situations. For example, some large-scale industrial transformation projects require years of construction time. In the future, the excess pressure on domestic and foreign production capacity may have been greatly relieved because the quality of sensors determines the accuracy and force measuring stability of the experimental machine

the quality of economic growth brought by investment should also be paid attention to. According to the research report recently released by Haitong Securities, the effect coefficient of fixed asset investment (New gdp/fixed asset investment) can directly reflect the macro return of investment. This coefficient decreases after the period of high economic growth and fluctuates in the same direction with economic fluctuations

according to the report, taking the United States as an example, in, the effect coefficient of fixed asset investment in the United States remained at about 0.2. When the economy declined, the effect coefficient also declined. The efficiency coefficient of China's fixed asset investment has continued to decline since 1992, which is close to the long-term average value of 0.2 in the United States. In 1992, every 100 yuan of fixed asset investment can increase GDP by 45.5 yuan. By 2003, every 100 yuan of fixed asset investment can only increase GDP by 24.2 yuan

Niu Li believes that in the medium and long term, social investment plays a greater role in stimulating economic growth than government investment. Data from the 30 years of reform and opening up show that every 1% increase in government capital drives 0.31% of GDP growth, and every 1% increase in social capital drives 0.38% of GDP growth. At present, we should seize the opportunity to transfer the driving force of economic growth from government investment to social investment. Niu Li suggested that new investment growth points should be actively cultivated. Relax market access and broaden the field and channels of 3D printing materials for social investment. Support small and medium-sized enterprises through policies such as taxation, financial discount and government procurement to drive social investment

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