The hottest overcapacity is comprehensively upgrad

Overcapacity is comprehensively upgraded, and the glass decline is imminent.

overcapacity in the glass industry is not only a problem of cyclical, phased and structural overcapacity, but a comprehensive overcapacity. The only solution according to the investigation of relevant associations is to reduce the capacity after intermediate annealing and pickling. The author predicts that the large-scale reshuffle of the glass industry (cold repair and shutdown of production lines) will come in the second and third quarters of next year. Before that, the situation of the glass industry will still be very serious, and the possibility of continued price decline is still great

in terms of downstream demand, the downturn of the property market will become the norm, and China's property market will gradually change from "abnormal" to "normal". From the perspective of the large cycle, the housing prices in the central urban areas of the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2013 increased by at least 10 times compared with 2003. Housing prices in the central areas of second tier cities in 2013 were generally times higher than those in 2003. From the perspective of money supply, the balance of broad money supply at the end of 2013 was 110.7 trillion yuan, compared with 22.12 trillion yuan at the end of 2003, an increase of only 5 times. It is obvious that the increase of house prices in the first and second tier cities should be carefully removed before painting. Rust, molding sand, oil and other dirt are far more than the expansion of money. At the end of 2009, house prices in Hangzhou even doubled from the beginning of the year. Such a large increase can only be expressed as "abnormal"

affected by the sluggish demand for downstream real estate, as of September 12 this year, the inventory of flat glass has reached 360000 weight boxes, a record high. Although the spot price of glass was slightly adjusted in September, and the inventory fell periodically, the domestic real estate situation in 2014 was bad, coupled with the loose upstream supply, it is expected that the inventory will still rebound significantly after the winter, and the glass inventory in the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 will exceed the previous high

the profits of glass enterprises also fell to the freezing point. From January to July this year, the glass industry achieved a profit of 69. 900million yuan, of which the total profit of flat glass is 1.47 billion yuan and that of processed glass is 2.78 billion yuan. The profit of flat glass in the second quarter was only 140million yuan, down 90% from the first quarter. The profit of 140million yuan in the whole industry is not even as good as that of a previous glass enterprise. Affected by the rise in natural gas prices, glass enterprises in the natural gas line in the industry suffer serious losses. Theoretically speaking, the third quarter should be the best time of the year, but the profit obtained is only half of that of the same period last year. After experiencing a sharp fall, the mentality of the market has become fragile, and every price adjustment will cause panic

China glass () Department