How does the most popular American and Japanese ma

2022-08-23
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On April 10, the chief economic adviser of the White House, kudelau, called on American companies in China to consider withdrawing from China, and did not forget to emphasize the stimulus measures: the U.S. government is willing to pay the cost of moving

on the same day, there was another call for Japanese enterprises to leave China. It was reported that the Japanese government decided to allocate $2billion to support Japanese enterprises to move back to Japan. In addition, there was a budget of $200million to support Japanese enterprises to leave China and move to other countries

then, what is the impact on the fate and distribution of the global industrial chain? We can also disassemble it into the following three small questions:

can the United States really go back if it wants the manufacturing industry to return

can Japan call for the return and dispersion of manufacturing industry be realized

both the United States and Japan are staring at "de Sinicization". Does China mean that it can move

before entering the text, I would like to share a few views:

the "manufacturing return" strategy in the United States has been implemented for 10 years, and the results show that it has little effect. From the subtle game between apple, Tesla, Ge, 3M and other enterprises and the government, what the U.S. government says has little impact on enterprises. Interestingly, when the will of the government is contrary to the objectives of the enterprise, the government chooses to safeguard the interests of the enterprise

despite Japan's new "de Chinalization" measures, there is no way to stop the relocation of labor-intensive industrial chains with low added value, whether there is a trade war or an epidemic. Fortunately, China's industrial structure has been adjusted and optimized in the direction of high added value, which is the top priority of China's industrial chain development at present

After the epidemic, large enterprises will certainly increase the globalization of supply chain and sales market in business decision-making. In this process, China is one of the most attractive countries in terms of market size, supply chain structure, length and integrity

global supply chains have been closely linked for a long time. Even if China's industrial chain is highly integrated, long and relatively independent, in some key links, China also needs to work with surrounding markets and global markets to complete the layout of globalization

hope to bring some inspiration. Welcome to communicate and interact with us at the end of the article

drawing: Chen Feng

/01/

can the United States go back if it wants the manufacturing industry to return

in the past, the "manufacturing return" strategy has been implemented in the United States for more than 10 years, with limited results

in terms of growth rate, in most years of, American green plastic packaging materials not only need sanitation and environmental protection, but also the growth rate of manufacturing industry in the country has failed to keep up with the growth of the overall economy of the United States. In 2009, the growth rate of the U.S. manufacturing industry fell to -7.6%. Except for the high growth rate of 5.3% in 2010, the growth rate in other years was lower than 2.0%

in terms of the proportion of manufacturing industry in the U.S. economy, the proportion of the added value of U.S. manufacturing industry in GDP in has not returned to the level of 12.8% before the financial crisis, which is much lower than the high level of about 15% at the beginning of the 21st century

besides, there are really not many Americans willing to engage in manufacturing. The proportion of manufacturing employees in the United States has shown an overall downward trend since 2000. In these three years, the proportion of manufacturing employees in the United States has fallen to 8.8%, 8.3% and 8.5%

imagine:

assuming that% of Apple's production and sales are in Europe and the United States, how much will Apple be affected now

if the epidemic occurred a year ago, how much will Tesla's sales, market value and production be affected? (at that time, almost 100% of Tesla's production capacity was in the United States, and 90% of its sales were in Europe and the United States.)

at present, it is difficult for the U.S. government to interfere with the business mode and behavior of enterprises

let's take a look at the recent events in the United States. In March, 2020, in order to combat the spread of the COVID-19, President trump, in the name of "wartime president", launched the national defense production act, requiring American enterprises to strengthen the production of masks and medical protective articles

General Motors was named to produce ventilators and ventilators. 3M was asked to strengthen the production of N95 masks and "give priority to the United States" when selling masks. It was even asked to stop exporting masks to Canada and other countries

as a result, 3M initially took a resistant attitude and refused to provide masks only to the United States. The final compromise is to increase the supply of masks to the United States without restricting exports

so you see, in the face of the requirements of the government, even in the extraordinary period of the anti epidemic, large enterprises still have a strong voice

another recent event is that Huawei P40 disassembly video released by the financial times shows that American manufacturers such as Qualcomm, qorvo and skyworks have provided radio frequency (RF) components. Similarly, in the component analysis table of Huawei nova6 5g, there are also 7 components from the United States. They are the latest models of Huawei, which means that although the U.S. government is suppressing and sanctioning Huawei, well-known hardware manufacturers in the United States still maintain business contacts with Huawei

Tesla is also "willful". Although the Sino US trade war escalated and the government called for "manufacturing return", Tesla built its first factory outside the United States in Shanghai, China. Not only that, it also put on the agenda the realization of 100% localization of vehicle parts within the year

furthermore, the interests of enterprises and the wishes of the government are not completely consistent. When there is a conflict between the two, the United States' action against large American companies is to exempt them from the rules

for example, the extra tax on Chinese goods exported to the United States was intended to set up obstacles for China and win orders for domestic enterprises in the United States, but it touched the interests of large enterprises such as apple and Ge

many large American enterprises apply for tariff exemption, although they need to prove that they meet the exemption standard launched by the U.S. trade representative office: whether the product can only be obtained from China; Whether the additional tax on the product will cause serious economic impact on the applicant or other U.S. interested parties; Whether the product is related to Chinese industrial projects or has strategic significance

in September 2019, apple applied for 15 tariff exemptions, of which 10 were approved. In late March 2020, another apple product, apple watch, received tariff exemption, which means that Apple does not need to pay 7.5% tariff when importing finished Apple watch from China

in addition to apple, another company that recently received exemption from the U.S. government is ge. On April 7, 2020, according to Reuters, Ge obtained the permission of the U.S. government to provide engines for China's large aircraft C919

what happened to apple and Ge shows that when the interests of enterprises are inconsistent with the wishes of the government, the U.S. government will give in and let enterprises "make money", even if they cooperate with countries that the United States wants to suppress

why do Tesla, apple, GE and other multinational enterprises choose to do business with China against the risk of confrontation with the government? The reason is very simple. We must pay attention to the Chinese market

in many industries and fields, China has become the largest single market in the world. This is an irresistible attraction

data from canalys, a research company, shows that in the first quarter of 2012, China surpassed the United States as the world's largest smart market for the first time, and since then China has been firmly in the first place

in 2009, China became the largest new car market in the world. Six years later, in 2015, China won the first place in the world for new energy vehicles. According to the prediction of the Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2020, China's car ownership is expected to exceed that of the United States and become the world's first

the rapid growth of China's passenger and cargo demand is also driving the outbreak of the aviation market. The International Air Transport Association predicts that within five years, China will replace the United States as the world's largest aviation market

a little optimistic, China is likely to surpass the United States as the world's largest single consumer market in 2020. Last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 3% lower than that in the United States. Given that China has begun to recover from the epidemic, and the epidemic prevention situation in the United States is still severe, if the impact of the epidemic on consumer retail in the United States is more than 3% greater than that in China, regardless of growth rate and other factors, China is expected to become the world's largest single consumer market in 2020. Even considering the growth rate, the U.S. GDP growth rate in 2019 was 2.3%, while China's GDP growth rate was 6.1%

therefore, before we discuss whether the industrial chain will return to the United States, a problem that large enterprises must face is whether to earn money from China, which is the world's largest market in almost all important industries

insert a thinking question:

q: compared with before the epidemic, what may be the difference between the Sino US trade war after the epidemic

welcome to click "good looking" at the end of the article, and then reply to "globalization" backstage to get our answers

/02/

both the United States and Japan are staring at "de Sinicization". Does China mean that it can move

the inseparable Chinese supply chain: "bigger", "thicker", "value-added"

since the emergence of township enterprises around 1984, after nearly 40 years of development, made in China has integrated the world's largest, most complete, longest and other characteristics. In 2010, the output value of China's manufacturing industry surpassed that of the United States for the first time and has not lost the first place in the world. This determines that it is difficult for pillar industries of various countries to bypass China from the industrial chain

while "expanding" and "thickening", China's industrial structure is also "adding value": outside the scale, it undertakes high value-added precision processing. (later, we will disassemble the development and change history of made in China)

take the automobile and industry that are recognized as the most difficult to build as an example

China has long been the world's largest auto producer. According to marklines, the global auto production in 2019 was about 90.87 million, and China's auto production accounted for 28.3%

China is also one of the countries with the best integrity of the automotive industry chain and the highest proportion of localization. We have more than 100000 auto parts enterprises, basically realizing the full coverage of 1500 kinds of auto parts. On the other hand, the top 50 tier one and tier two parts suppliers in the world have all established factories in China; Among the world's top ten Tier-1 foreign-funded suppliers, more than 400 manufacturing plants and R & D institutions have been deployed in China

the strong automobile supply chain is Tesla's confidence to change the localization proportion from 30% to 100% this year. China is probably the only country that can achieve this goal in such a short time. Earlier, Tesla's Shanghai plant was quickly completed and approved for production, which has highlighted China's speed

brands also prefer Chinese supply chains. In recent years, Apple has accelerated the migration of its industrial chain to China. Despite the factors of Sino US trade war, the number and proportion of Chinese factories are still significantly increasing from the composition of Apple's top 200 global suppliers in 2019. In 2018, Apple had 778 factories worldwide, 356 of which were located in Chinese Mainland, accounting for 45.76%; In 2019, 383 of Apple's 807 factories in the world came from Chinese Mainland, accounting for 47.46%

China's contribution to the industrial chain has long been more than OEM. China already has several world-class brands, including vivo, oppo, Xiaomi and Huawei. Among the top five smart manufacturers in the world in 2019, China accounted for three seats,

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